Saturday, October 20, 2018

Trump's "Red Wave"


"A Blue Wave means Crime and Open Borders. A Red Wave means Safety and Strength!" Trump tweeted on August 21.



And following the California primary in early June, Trump tweeted this: "Great night for Republicans! Congratulations to John Cox on a really big number in California.



Texas has to re-elect a Cuban born in Canada!



That covers BOTH borders!



History suggests that the idea of a red wave is incredibly far-fetched.



Look at a few of the historical hurdles Trump has to bully past to make the "Red Wave" appear:



• Since the Civil War, the party that controls the White House has lost House seats in 35 out of 38 midterm elections.



• The three elections in which the president's party won seats in a midterm were 1934 (Great Depression), 1998 (Bill Clinton impeachment) and 2002 (aftermath of Sept. 11 attacks). Those were all massive happenings.



• Since 1946, the average seat loss for a president's party when that president's job approval rating is under 50% is 36 seats. Trump's job approval is at 36%. That's similar to George W. Bush's 38% approval in 2006 when his party lost 30 House seats.



• Since direct election of senators (in 1913), there have been 19 of 26 midterm elections in which the president's party has lost Senate seats.



Trump's red wave?





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