Saturday, April 7, 2018

Blue Wave?

The “blue wave” is a surge of Democrats taking back Congress in the 2018 midterm elections.

However, some Democratic senators still face challenges preserving their seats in five states Trump carried in 2016.

Five Democrats face that scenario this fall. Many of the seats were previously considered too tough for Democrats to keep a hold on.

Senator Jon Tester, of Montana, is the most vulnerable with a 42 percent to 55 percent projected loss to any Republican candidate.

Moderate West Virginia Senator Joe Manchin could suffer a nine-point loss.

Senator Claire McCaskill, of Missouri, could be knocked out by eight-points.

Single-term Senator Joe Donnelly, of Indiana…

…and North Dakota's Heidi Heitkamp could also find themselves out of a job.

Trump’s approval rating was somewhat higher than the incumbent Democratic senator in these five states, suggesting a note of caution for Democrats who plan to storm to victory in November.

Trump has lost support across the country but, in some of the contested Senate seats, residual support remains.

Although Trump had a positive net approval rating in 38 states the day he entered office, that total has slipped to just 26. And those 26 are rural where fewer house seats are in play and where good numbers do not overcome Trump's record low approval rating when ALL voters are considered.

Trump has somehow maintained a positive net approval in Montana, North and South Dakota, Indiana and West Virginia. Those five Senate seats would keep the chamber in the GOP’s favor.

The areas that face significant unemployment during Trump's trade wars may not stay the course with their lord-god emperor king Trump (see map above).

And rampant instability in white house staffing is not an asset.

Wait, and see.

Talk of a major Democratic tidal wave has spread since encouraging victories in Alabama and Virginia late last year.

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