2020 already?

America’s 2020 presidential election is starting to warm up.

The hyperpartisanship and polarization affected our political behavior and made election outcomes predictable.

For the 2018 midterms, we watched a large partisan surge for Democrats (the Blue Wave). Democrats picked up 40 seats in the House of Representatives when the counting was over! Conservative misinformation has grown thread bare.

Motivated by Trump’s idiocy , Democratic voters, especially college-educated women, turned out against Trump’s GOP in large numbers.

In 2020, Democrats will win in urban, diverse, better-educated, and liberal-friendly states.

Although Trump may take both Ohio and Florida, he is no longer likely to carry Michigan, Wisconsin or Pennsylvania in 2020.

The midterm performance of Democrats in those states was stunning.

Trump’s troubles with swing voters, whom he won in 2016, will put Arizona, North Carolina and even Georgia in play for Democrats and completely remove Virginia, Colorado, Nevada, and New Hampshire from his list of possible swing states.

In short, the 2020 presidential election is a battle of the bases, and the Democratic base is bigger, younger, more motivated, and enthusiastic – and their ground game dwarfs that of the GOP.

And Mueller said: "Get me Roger Stone!"



Legal "Discovery" is a wonderful thing.

That youthful demographic advantage combined with enthusiasm (and party loyalty) gives the Democratic Party a significant structural advantage. Turnout in 2018 was about 12 points higher than the 2016 turnout and higher than any other midterm in decades.

Democrats have a clear path to recapturing the White House regardless of their candidate.