Out of touch?

Two months ahead of the midterm elections, Democrats hold a clear advantage over Republicans in congressional vote support.

The survey by Washington Post-ABC News also points to broad unrest and frustration with Mr Trump and the Republican Party who “are out of touch” with people.

Registered voters say they favor Democratic candidates over Republican candidates by 52 per cent to 38 per cent. That is an increase from the four-point edge in an April Post-ABC poll.

Because of the overall makeup of congressional districts, analysts have long said that Democrats would need a clear advantage if they hope to flip the 23 seats needed to take control. The Post-ABC poll puts Democrats in a stronger position with an edge of more than eight points in every recent survey.

Democrats are slightly more likely than Republicans to say they are absolutely certain to vote, by 80 per cent to 74 per cent.

Four years ago, when Republicans made gains in the midterm elections, the GOP enjoyed a 10-point advantage.

The latest survey also indicated that 63% of the people who had not voted in 2014 now say they are “absolutely certain” to vote in November. This favors Democrats by 7 to 3.

The past three midterm elections - 2006, 2010 and 2014 - produced substantial losses for the party that held the White House.

Presidential approval has become a strong indicator of which party voters will support in midterm elections. More than eight in 10 voters disapprove the president's performance.

In the Post-ABC poll, more than eight in 10 of Trump disapprovers support Democrats. Given Mr Trump's current low ratings, this puts Republicans at a clear disadvantage heading towards November.

Mr Trump's current average in surveys polling random samples of registered voters since mid-August is about 42 per cent. Republicans know they will be exceedingly vulnerable in November if the president is not able to improve his standing.

Ironically, many Republicans are worried about whether they can hold the House during a time of positive economic assessments which underscores how much Mr Trump's unpopularity has undermined the party' greatest asset as fall campaigning begins.

The voters now favor Democrats over Republicans at 70 to 20 per cent, a 50-point margin. But Republicans hold only a seven-point advantage with voters who view the economy positively, 49 to 42 per cent.

When asked whether they would rather have Democrats control Congress "as a check on Trump" or a Republican-controlled Congress "to support Trump's agenda," 60 per cent of voters say they prefer having Democrats in control.

Meanwhile, 59 per cent of voters say it is extremely or very important for them to support a candidate who shares their opinion of Mr Trump, a figure that has grown seven points since April. Sixty-nine per cent of Democrats and 65 per cent of Republicans say they are seeking candidates with similar views of the president, suggesting that Mr Trump is a motivator for both his supporters and his opponents.

Americans sense high stakes for the November elections, which could boost turnout from a half-century low point in 2014. Nearly two-thirds of registered voters say it is more important to vote now than in past midterms. Democratic voters say that voting this fall is more important than in previous midterm years, by 75 per cent.

A Democratic takeover of the House would break unified Republican control of the federal government and give lawmakers substantial power to launch investigations of the Trump administration on a range of fronts.

Many Democrats have avoided talking about impeachment proceedings that could remove Mr Trump from office.

The Post-ABC poll finds that 72 per cent of all adults think the Democrats would seek to impeach the president if they were in power in the House, including 79 per cent of Republicans and 70 per cent of Democrats.

On the question of who is in touch with the American people, the perception of the president and the GOP has changed little since the day Mr Trump took office, with 63 per cent saying each are out of touch.